Gas Prices, the Midterms and the AI War: Trump Advisor Rick Clay Warns America Is Fighting on Multiple Fronts

Americans may see high gas prices as another hit to the family budget, but national-security and geopolitical analyst Rick Clay says there is a much bigger story unfolding—one that stretches from Iran and Russia to China, artificial intelligence and the 2026 midterm elections.

Clay brings an extensive national-security background to the discussion. He is a former U.S. Marine, served as a presidential appointee under President George W. Bush, and was an architect of the Green Zone in Iraq. He also serves as an adviser to President Donald Trump. During our interview, Clay said he had recently been discussing Iran and geopolitical threats with intelligence agencies.

One of Clay’s strongest warnings concerned Iran and American gas prices.

Clay believes Iran is “playing for the midterms,” arguing that Tehran hopes continued instability and economic pressure will hurt Republicans politically and produce Democratic gains in November.

His argument is straightforward: Iran does not have to defeat the United States militarily to cause Americans pain. Disruption or threats surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, proxy attacks and uncertainty in global energy markets can contribute to higher fuel costs. Clay predicted Iran would try to influence oil prices approaching the midterms, hoping economic frustration among American voters would create political pressure on Trump.

But Clay emphasized that Iran is not solely responsible for higher prices.

Ukrainian attacks have damaged Russian refining capacity, while Russia restricted exports of refined petroleum products, including diesel.  Clay also pointed to refinery shutdowns on the West Coast and soaring maritime-insurance costs as additional pressures on fuel prices.

The conversation then turned to what may be an even greater long-term battle: China and artificial intelligence.

Clay argues that America currently holds a significant technological advantage over China in advanced AI and computing. That makes America’s growing network of data centers strategic infrastructure, not simply another economic-development project.

Clay alleged during the interview that Chinese and Russian interests are helping fund opposition to American data-center development. His warning is that foreign adversaries do not necessarily have to surpass American technology if they can persuade Americans to slow down their own technological expansion.

That makes the public debate surrounding data centers particularly important. Communities have legitimate questions about electricity, water, land use and utility costs. But Americans should also understand what is at stake internationally.

The nation that possesses the computing power, advanced semiconductors and energy infrastructure necessary to dominate artificial intelligence could gain an enormous economic and military advantage. China understands that competition. America must understand it too.

Clay also addressed Iran’s nuclear and EMP capabilities, Russia’s economic vulnerabilities, sanctions, instability inside Iran and China’s export-dependent economy. Drawing on his Marine background, he offered an unconventional assessment of China’s ability to invade Taiwan, noting his own training in amphibious warfare.

The larger message from our conversation was unmistakable: modern warfare is no longer fought only with missiles, ships and soldiers.

Energy can be a weapon. Supply chains can be a weapon. Information can be a weapon. Artificial intelligence can be a weapon.

And as Americans prepare to vote in the midterms, understanding who benefits from economic disruption—and who benefits if America slows its technological development—may be just as important as what happens on a traditional battlefield.