Merrill Sees Tuberville Win, Tougher Legislative Races

Former Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill expects Tommy Tuberville to defeat Doug Jones in the Governor’s race. But, he sees a tougher fight for Republicans in several legislative districts, where local issues, new residents and turnout could give Democrats an opening.

Speaking with Christopher Peeks and Brandon Mosley on the BCS Alabama Political Contributor podcast, Merrill dismissed claims that the Governor’s race is a toss-up. He put Tuberville’s likely margin at eight to 16 percentage points.

“But there's no way that I can see Senator Jones getting closer than eight percentage points to Coach Tuberville,” Merrill said. “He may win by as many as 15 or 16 percentage points, but I don't see it being any closer than that.”

Those figures were Merrill’s forecast, rather than results from a poll presented in the interview. His outlook rests largely on Alabama’s strong Republican voting habits and the GOP’s strength in rural counties.

Merrill said some Republicans who are upset with Tuberville may withhold their votes. He doubts many will cross over to Jones.

“They may not vote for Coach with enthusiasm, or they may not vote for Coach at all, but they will not vote for Senator Jones because he does not represent their core values,” Merrill said.

He also argued that a more active Democratic ticket could push Republicans to turn out, giving GOP voters a reason to take the election seriously.

The more unsettled contests, in his view, are farther down the ballot. Merrill estimated that about 15 House seats and six to eight Senate seats could be competitive. He singled out Jefferson and Madison Counties as places to watch.

In Madison County, he pointed to people moving into the Huntsville area from other parts of the country. Some bring political views that differ from those of the State’s longtime Republican base.

“Because they brought their politics with them, they're going to be actively finding candidates that they feel reflect their values, and many of those people are not strong supporters of the President,” Merrill said.

That creates a risk for Republican campaigns built around winning primaries and then cruising through November. Merrill warned that gains by Democrats could shift committee dynamics and force more cooperation between the parties, even if Republicans keep firm control of the Legislature.

He did not expect enough Democratic wins to put Tuberville’s agenda in jeopardy. But several victories could help the party build a stronger bench for future races.

Merrill also acknowledged that concern over prices and fatigue with President Donald Trump could play some role in the election. Still, he said Trump retains strong support in Alabama.

“Again, all politics is local, but President Trump is still very popular in the State of Alabama,” he said.

Merrill was sharply critical of Jones’ decision to bring Stacey Abrams to Alabama. He viewed the visit as an effort to energize core Democratic voters, with limited appeal to people outside that base.

He said Jones had gained some ground through ads focused on data centers and gasoline prices, then undercut that progress.

“I think he had moved in a direction where more and more people were listening to what he was saying with those data center ads, with those gasoline ads,” Merrill said. “But then he definitely knew what to do to stop the momentum when he brought Stacey Abrams in here.”

Merrill also cited what he described as a lack of major national Democratic support as a sign that party leaders see better chances elsewhere.

“If they felt like it was a winnable race, they would be pouring in their resources, their financial resources,” he said. “They would have visits down here promoting the candidates that are their standard-bearers, and you're not seeing that.”

Among the independent legislative candidates discussed, Merrill gave former State Rep. Elaine Beech the best chance of winning. He ranked Jesse Battles next, followed by Doc Mancuso.

He said independents face an added hurdle: making sure supporters select their names rather than relying solely on a straight-party vote.

Merrill offered praise for another familiar name, former Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. But he said even a strong candidate can suffer when voters leave races near the bottom of the ballot blank.

“People are not going to vote for every candidate that's on their ballot,” Merrill said.

On data centers, Merrill favored local control. He said communities should decide whether projects fit their needs, subject to local building and zoning rules.

“Those local communities that want to have data centers ought to be able to have data centers, but it should be left up to the local community,” he said.

Alabama’s general election is November 3. The final day to register to vote in that election is October 19.

The full interview with Sec. Merrill may be seen on YouTube and below: