Poll: McCarron Led Lt. Gov Field; Affordability is THE Issue

New results from The Alabama Poll show a still-fluid Republican primary landscape and underscore a powerful theme shaping the 2026 GOP contests: voter concern over rising costs.

At the time the survey was conducted in mid-December 2025, former University of Alabama quarterback AJ McCarron led the Republican field for Lieutenant Governor with 31 percent support among likely GOP primary voters. He has since ended his campaign to coach the Birmingham Stallions.

Though McCarron’s departure reshapes the down-ballot race, his early lead highlights how quickly attention can concentrate and shift in a developing contest.

The poll also found affordability issues loom largest for Republican primary voters. When asked what mattered most facing the State, concerns tied to inflation, cost of living, insurance costs, and the economy collectively accounted for 80 percent of responses.

Among specific cost pressures, groceries and food topped the list at 58 percent, followed by insurance costs at 33 percent and healthcare at 30 percent.

"The 2026 Republican primaries will be won on the issues, and if you're not talking about lowering costs for families, you're not winning," said Michael Lowry, Principal of The Alabama Poll. "This survey shows that affordability isn't a side issue - it's the main event, and it's likely to define how voters evaluate candidates up and down the ballot."

The poll provided early looks at several major GOP primary races:

• Lieutenant Governor: McCarron led with 31 percent, followed by Wes Allen (18 percent), Rick Pate (8 percent), and Nicole Wadsworth (2 percent). Undecided voters made up 41 percent of respondents. McCarron has since exited the race.
• U.S. Senate: Steve Marshall led with 30 percent support, followed by Barry Moore (12 percent), Jared Hudson (8 percent), Rodney Walker (3 percent), and Morgan Murphy (1 percent). Nearly half of voters remain undecided.
• Attorney General: This race remains wide open with 72 percent undecided. Jay Mitchell held 12 percent, Katherine Robertson 10 percent, and Pamela Casey 7 percent.
• Secretary of State: Andrew Sorrell led Caroleene Dobson 21 percent to 14 percent, though 64 percent were undecided. Sorrell recently said he will run for reelection as State Auditor.
• Agriculture Commissioner: Jack Williams topped the early field with 10 percent, followed by Corey Hill at 7 percent and Christina Woerner McInnis at 5 percent, with 79 percent undecided.

The poll’s findings paint a picture of an electorate still making up its mind in these key races, with undecided voters holding the potential to substantially affect the primary.

The survey also captured broader views of likely Republican primary voters:

• A strong majority (83 percent) self-identify as conservative, including 56 percent who say they are “very conservative.”
• Three-quarters identify as Evangelical or Born-Again Christians, with 47 percent describing themselves as both very conservative and born-again.
• President Donald Trump’s job approval stood at 88 percent among this group, rising to 95 percent among those who identify as conservative.

Favorability ratings for individual candidates varied, with Marshall (45 percent favorable) and McCarron (44 percent favorable) near the top of tested names.

The Alabama Poll surveyed 600 likely Republican primary voters on December 15, 16, and 18, 2025. The multi-modal survey combined live telephone interviews and text-to-online responses and was weighted to reflect expected turnout patterns. The poll’s margin of error is ±4.0 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

As Alabama Republicans head towards the May 19, 2026 primary, the data suggest affordability will remain top of mind for voters — and that will shape messaging and momentum up and down the ballot.

For details on this recent poll, see THIS LINK.

The Alabama Poll is a subscription-based public opinion research service providing high-quality survey research and analysis focused on Alabama politics, public policy, and elections. For additional information, interviews, or data requests, contact Michael Lowry or visit The Alabama Poll.