Recent Polling Shows Doug Jones and Tommy Tuberville Locked in a Dog Fight to be Next Alabama Governor

Guest opinion by Christopher M. Peeks

September 16, 2026

Like a fire bell in the night, Tommy Tuberville's gubernatorial campaign has received a dire wake-up call. A pair of internal Republican polls show the Coach in a dogfight with the man he unseated during their face-off in the 2020 Senate race—a contest Tuberville won by a 20-point landslide, crushing Jones 60% to 40%.

Recent data shows Coach facing an unexpectedly tough challenge. Many assumed Tuberville would easily win to become the Yellowhammer State's next chief executive. Campaign organizers even had the audacity to organize a dinner called "Passing the Torch," where Governor Ivey will appear, followed by “Governor-Elect Tuberville”—despite the fact that no candidate is ever proclaimed governor-elect until a race is officially called on election night.

Editor’s note: the “Passing the Torch” event is a fundraiser for the Jefferson County GOP, and is scheduled for October 16. The flyer for the event is reproduced below, exactly as it was received by ALPolitics.com. Tickets and sponsorships are available at JeffCoGOP.org.

According to high-ranking GOP officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, one sampling showed the current senior senator from Alabama leading former Senator Doug Jones by a margin of 47% to 41%, well within striking distance. Another canvass showed even more concerning figures.

In that second dataset, the former Auburn coach held a narrower advantage of 47% to 44%, well within the margin of error. That research also revealed Tuberville was 11 points underwater against Jones in Madison County, home to Huntsville, the largest city in Alabama.

There are a few reasons we are seeing the most competitive race in the state since 2002.

First, there is clear voter apathy within the Republican base. When comparing their individual primary vote totals, Tuberville outpaced Jones by only about 135,000 votes statewide—a far narrower gap than expected in a deeply red state, especially with Democrats maintaining a motivated, fired-up base heading to the general election. That is simply not a lot of ground to make up.

Next, Donald Trump fatigue is impacting the country. This has been a difficult year for the embattled president, marked by little good news, rising gas prices, and persistent cost-of-living concerns. These ongoing economic pressures—the very issues voters entrusted him to rein in during his 2024 campaign—have driven his approval ratings down.

Compounding those troubles, the nation remains embroiled in a conflict with Iran where the U.S. has struggled to gain the upper hand, leaving the administration bogged down without a clear exit strategy. His popularity can simply no longer be relied upon to automatically drive GOP turnout.

Also, Ken McFeeters' ballot challenges have inflicted real damage. While initially appearing minor, the issue has resonated with a segment of voters who now state they will no longer support Tuberville.

Furthermore, Senator Tuberville has made several missteps on the campaign trail, particularly his support regarding data centers and this can be understand to a point, there is no putting the genie back in the bottle, and expanding domestic infrastructure remains necessary to stay ahead of China.

These metrics indicate Senator Tuberville is losing ground to Jones. Consider the historical parallel from 1994: at this same stage, then-Governor Jim Folsom Jr. led Republican challenger Fob James 49% to 36%. In those historical numbers, just as in today's findings, both Folsom and Tuberville were held under 50%, and James ultimately came back to win 50.5% to 49.5%. In fact, Jones currently stands in a stronger position than Fob James did back then.

Lastly, Tuberville appears to be running as an incumbent, and electoral trends show that undecided voters typically break to the challenger late in a cycle.

Can Jones win this race? It is certainly possible. However, if the contest remains tight, disgruntled Republicans may ultimately return to their party baseline on election day, resulting in a blowout similar to 2020. While Coach remains the odds-on favorite to become the next governor, if Jones continues to close the gap at this pace, vote counting could stretch well into the early morning hours until we know a clear winner.

The above originally appeared in the Alabama Political Contributor. It is reprinted here, with minor editorial changes, by permission of the author.

Christopher M. Peeks is a Reporter, Columnist and Alabama Political Contributor.

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