Survey Shakes AL-1 GOP Race
A new Republican primary survey shows Jerry Carl sliding, Rhett Marques stalling, and Joshua McKee gaining ground in Alabama’s 1st District
A newly released survey of likely Republican primary voters is reshaping the outlook in Alabama’s 1st Congressional District, revealing sharp movement away from establishment candidates and growing momentum for political newcomer Joshua McKee.
The initial ballot test showed former Congressman Jerry Carl leading on residual name recognition, with State Representative Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) and former Green Beret Joshua McKee trailing in a crowded field dominated by undecided voters:
- Jerry Carl – 25.2%
- Rhett Marques – 9.2%
- Joshua McKee – 8.8%
- Undecided – 56.8%
When voters were presented with additional information about each candidate’s background and record, the race shifted dramatically. On the informed ballot, McKee moved into first place, Marques showed improvement (and a statistical dead heat with McKee), and Carl fell significantly to third place.
- Joshua McKee – 14.5%
- Rhett Marques – 14.2%
- Jerry Carl – 11.5%
- Undecided – 59.8%
The most striking change came at the top of the field. Carl dropped more than 13 points between the initial and informed ballots, signaling an erosion in support once voters were reminded of his prior time in Washington. Marques, despite endorsements from U.S. Sen. Katie Britt, Speaker of the Alabama House Nathaniel Ledbetter, 31 members of the Alabama House Republican Caucus and a visible advertising push, gained little ground and remained statistically tied for second.
The survey also tested voter sentiment on experience versus reform. When asked to choose between “a former member of Congress running on experience” and “a political outsider who wants to reform and change the way things are done,” respondents favored the outsider by a wide margin:
- Political outsider – 49.8%
- Former member of Congress – 30.0%
That result underscores a broader appetite for change among GOP primary voters in the District, particularly with nearly 60 percent still undecided. Analysts note that such volatility leaves room for continued movement as campaigns intensify and voters learn more about the candidates.
Joshua McKee appears to be benefiting most from that environment. As an outsider candidate with no prior elected office, his support increased once voters were informed about his military background and policy priorities. The survey suggests his message is resonating with voters seeking a break from traditional political resumes. A retired U.S. Army Green Beret with 25 years of service and a Bronze Star, he has been endorsed by the Green Beret PAC, Border Patriot PAC and GatorPAC.
Former Rep. Jerry Carl represented Alabama’s 1st District from 2021 to 2025 and is seeking a return to Congress. He has been endorsed by the Alabama Farmer’s Federation FarmPAC.
State Rep. Rhett Marques represents Baldwin County in the Alabama House and has received high-profile support from Sen. Katie Britt and other Alabama party leaders, as well as reporting strong fundraising in the race.
Other candidates on the ballot in the AL-1 Republican primary include Austin Sidwell, John Mills, James Richardson and James (Jimmy) Dees, but they were not included in the reported survey data.
The survey was carried out by The Alabama Poll on January 23, 2026, with a sample size of 400 likely Republican primary voters and a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.
