Tuberville Leads Jones by 11 as GOP Tops Statewide Poll

TL;DR: Tommy Tuberville leads Doug Jones 50.8% to 39.4% in a new Alabama Poll, with Republicans ahead by double digits in every Statewide race tested. Voters rank living costs as their chief concern and strongly support a lottery and a temporary gas tax break.

U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville holds an 11.4-point lead over Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama’s Governor’s race, while fellow Republicans lead every other Statewide contest tested in a new survey released Tuesday.

The Alabama Poll puts Tuberville at 50.8% and Jones at 39.4%, with independent Ronald Burnette Jr. drawing 4.1%. Just 5.7% remain undecided.

The survey of 600 likely general election voters was conducted Oct. 15–18. Its reported margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The findings point toward a strong Republican showing, based on voter preferences.

Michael Lowry, founder of The Alabama Poll, offered a blunt assessment in the service’s Oct. 20 release.

“Doug Jones is the strongest candidate Alabama Democrats could put on the ballot – universal name ID, a former senator, and a 42% favorable rating. Tommy Tuberville leads him by double digits with 94% of the electorate already committed, and he’s doing it with the voters who actually turn out in a midterm. There is no path for Jones in these numbers. This race is settled.” 

Tuberville draws support from 85.9% of Republicans and 81.9% of voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2024, according to the release. He leads Jones 62.6% to 26.1% among rural voters, who account for nearly four in 10 respondents.

Jones carries 55.4% of independents and performs best among younger voters. Tuberville’s edge rests on older voters and those with a strong record of casting ballots.

The Republican advantage extends down the ticket. U.S. Rep. Barry Moore leads Democrat Everett Wess 56.2% to 35.0% in the Senate race, the widest gap among the named contests surveyed.

John Wahl leads Phillip Ensler 53.1% to 35.9% for Lieutenant Governor. Katherine Robertson leads Jeff McLaughlin 54.2% to 34.9% for Attorney General. Corey Hill leads Ron Sparks 54.2% to 36.6% for Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries.

Republicans also lead the generic legislative ballot 55.1% to 38.0%. That question asks voters which party they prefer, rather than testing candidates in each House or Senate district.

The release reports a similar Republican edge in North Alabama: 55.4% to 40.2% on the legislative ballot. Republicans lead 55.7% to 39.9% in the Huntsville media market and 57.0% to 42.1% in Madison County. Those smaller groups carry larger margins of error than the Statewide sample.

“I keep hearing that Republicans are in trouble in North Alabama. I went looking for it and it isn’t there. North Alabama looks exactly like the rest of the State – a 15-point Republican lead with almost nobody undecided. Where Republicans have a question to answer is with younger voters, and that’s a question for 2034, not for November 3rd,” Lowry said in the release.

Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot among voters under 55, according to the release. Republicans hold large leads among older voters and a 27-point edge among those who voted in all four of the last general elections.

Strong Republican numbers do not mean voters are pleased with the state of affairs.

A majority, 54.1%, say the country is on the wrong track. Another 50.4% say the same of Alabama. Yet respondents favor Republicans over Democrats 46.6% to 31.0% on making Alabama more affordable. Another 15.1% trust neither party on that issue.

Asked what the Governor and Legislature should focus on to help their families, 70.9% name an economic concern. Inflation and living costs lead at 46.0%.

Groceries and food are the most common household cost concern at 66.2%, followed by gas at 39.4% and utility bills at 29.4%.

“Half of Alabama says the State is on the wrong track and they’re still voting Republican by 17 points. That’s not a revolt – that’s a grumpy electorate that has decided who it trusts on the thing it cares about most, which is the price of everything. If you’re running for office in Alabama and you’re not talking about groceries and gas, you’re not talking to anybody,” Lowry said.

The survey also finds broad support for two proposals that could reach across party lines.

Establishing a Statewide lottery wins approval from 79.2% of respondents, with 16.3% opposed. The release reports support from 70.1% of Republicans, 87.6% of independents and 90.0% of Democrats. The question asked about creating a lottery, rather than merely allowing a public vote.

A temporary suspension of what the survey describes as the State’s 30-cent-per-gallon gas tax draws 79.3% approval and 11.8% opposition. Support includes 85.3% of Republicans and 74.6% of Democrats, according to the release.

Voters take a more guarded view of data centers. Statewide, 53.3% view them unfavorably, compared with 33.0% who view them favorably.

Asked about AI data centers, 58.6% choose an option allowing projects only if companies meet their own electricity needs, shield ratepayers from higher bills and protect water and nearby natural resources. Another 27.9% say the centers should not be built in Alabama. Just 6.7% choose the option allowing them wherever local governments approve.

The Alabama Poll is an independent, subscription-based research service that is not employed by candidate campaigns. Interviews were conducted through live calls to landlines and cellphones, along with text invitations to an online survey. The service says the sample was matched to turnout patterns from past midterm elections.

Alabama’s general election is Tuesday, Nov. 3.