The Race to the Finish and the Baited Field
With less than three weeks until the May 19 Primary, Alabama’s candidates will be scrambling for votes — and here’s where they’re to be found
Three weeks from today, Alabama’s primary election will be history, over and done.
For some, this will be the end of their political journey this cycle. For others — those who make it to a runoff — they’ll have about fifteen minutes to catch their breath before they start working on that.
And the rest of us? We can expect to be bombarded ad nauseam by ads in every medium and on every platform for the next 20 days, especially if we live in the larger Counties.
That is, after all, where the votes are.
The time when every little town and the smaller Counties got attention from candidates has past. During the fall, and earlier this year? “Certainly.” Having a meeting of the McMullen (population: 17) Chamber of Commerce and Chainsaw Juggling Club? If you asked last August? “No problem! We’ll be there!”
Between now and May 19th? “We’re so sorry, but we’re already booked that day. Can we send a surrogate?”
By “surrogate”, they mean the intern/volunteer that nobody will miss if they disappear in deepest, darkest Pickens County until midsummer…or forever.
Most campaigns have already pulled the numbers and know where the votes are. Based on the 2022 election (probably the best guide to this cycle) the top and bottom Counties are:
Top 15 Counties (2022):
- Jefferson
- Mobile
- Madison
- Baldwin
- Shelby
- Montgomery
- Tuscaloosa
- Lee
- Calhoun
- Etowah
- Morgan
- Houston
- Marshall
- Lauderdale
- St. Clair
Bottom 10:
- Greene
- Perry
- Wilcox
- Bullock
- Lowndes
- Coosa
- Choctaw
- Sumter
- Hale
- Cleburne
Sorry, Black Belt. If you haven’t felt the love yet, you probably won’t.
But, if you live in one of those top Counties — especially if you’re in the “Big 8 — brace yourself.
From Jefferson down through Lee, in 2022, those 8 Counties accounted for just over 1 million of the 1.85 million votes cast, or roughly 57%.
Yes, that’s right. 12% of our Counties were responsible for almost 60% of the votes. Like it or not, the population density of these Counties makes them the baited fields the Statewide candidates will be hunting over for the next 20 days.
There are some nuances to this. Jefferson and Montgomery tend to lean Democrat, Shelby and Baldwin are strongly Republican, and Madison and Mobile are a mixed bag of purple. The rank order for Republican and Democrat vote numbers is slightly different, especially as you move down the list. And, these lists only apply to Statewide races — local races are an entirely different animal, and each has its own quirks and peculiarities.
Still, knowing where the votes are may help understand the actions we’ll see from campaigns over the next three weeks.
Willie Sutton, the famous bank robber, was once asked why he robbed banks. His answer, so the story goes, was “because that’s where the money is.”
Expect to see lots of candidates following Sutton’s advice the next three weeks. And those that don’t?
We’ll see ‘em next cycle. Maybe.
Dr. Bill Chitwood is the Managing Editor of ALPolitics.com. He is the author, under his nom de guerre Doc Contrarian, of Beyond MAGA: From Trump campaign slogan to political movement to restoring the Republic. He identifies as Conservatarian Contrarian and a staunch Constitutional Originalist. He enjoys being called a First Amendment Nazi — mainly because he is.
Opinions do not reflect the views and opinions of ALPolitics.com. ALPolitics.com makes no claims nor assumes any responsibility for the information and opinions expressed above.
