New Poll Puts Jones Within 3 Points of Tuberville
Tuberville leads 48%–45% in a campaign-independent survey from a Democratic firm, a much closer result than other recent polls
TL;DR: A new Blueprint Polling survey puts Doug Jones three points behind Tommy Tuberville, with 7% undecided. The result is much closer than another recent poll, which gave Tuberville an 11-point lead.
Democrat Doug Jones trails Republican Tommy Tuberville by just three points in a new Alabama Governor’s race poll, offering a sharply different picture from other recent surveys.
The Blueprint Polling survey, released by Chism Strategies on Oct. 28, gives Tuberville 48% to Jones’ 45%, with 7% undecided.
The poll surveyed 695 likely voters Oct. 22–24 through text messages that directed them to an online survey. The firm reports a margin of error of plus or minus 3.72 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Results were weighted to match the expected November electorate.
Chism calls the contest a “genuine toss-up.” Before undecided voters were assigned to the candidate they leaned toward, Tuberville led 45%–44%.
The poll was conducted independently of the two campaigns, according to the firm, which says no outside campaign or group sponsored it. Chism itself has a clear political focus: Its website says it works to help Democrats win races.
Naturally, that distinction clearly matters when weighing the results. Independence from a campaign does not make a polling firm nonpartisan, and Chism’s stated purpose should be taken into account when viewing the results.
The findings also differ significantly from a recent poll commissioned by Alabama Daily News and Gray Television. That survey put Tuberville ahead 51.2%–40%, with 8.9% undecided. It surveyed 500 likely voters Oct. 16–17 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.
The Chism result, in and of itself, does not prove Jones has gained eight points on Tuberville. The surveys came from different firms and used different samples. They offer competing snapshots of the race.
Notably, among the respondents who reported voting in 2024, 57.1% said they voted for Republican Donald Trump, while only 32.6% voted for Democrat Kamala Harris. That difference raises significant questions not only about the sample, but about Doug Jones’ relative over-performance to Harris two years ago.
In 2024, Trump carried Alabama with 64.58% of the vote, while Harris received 34.09%.
It is also significant that the number of “completely undecided“ respondents — 7.3% — may make any meaningful determinations about that group limited, due to the small sample size.
Regardless, Tuberville still leads in both surveys. The question is over how much of a lead he actually has. Blueprint’s poll suggests Jones remains within reach; Cygnal’s gives the Republican a much firmer cushion.
Full details, including questions, responses and cross tabs of the Chism poll may be found at THIS LINK.
