Polls: Trump Convention Fizzles as GOP midterm fears grow

TL;DR: Trump’s Dallas midterm convention failed to produce the political bounce Republicans hoped for. Polls taken after the event show Democrats widening their lead as voters hammer Trump on inflation, gas prices, the economy and the Iran war. Diesel prices have hit record highs, while gasoline is again above $4 nationally. With control of Congress at stake, some Republicans in close races are putting more distance between themselves and the President.

President Donald Trump went to Dallas last week hoping to turn the Republican Party’s first midterm convention into a political reset.

Instead, the party left Texas facing many of the same problems it had when it arrived — and perhaps a few new ones.

The two-day event at the American Airlines Center was billed as a massive show of Republican strength less than two months before the Nov. 3 midterms. Trump later called it a “solidly sold out winner for Republicans.”

The pictures told a less flattering story.

Large blocks of seats were empty during parts of the convention, including during Trump’s opening-night appearance. Organizers were seen trying to move people into open sections shortly before the President spoke. Several Republican candidates in close races skipped the gathering altogether.

The television audience was also far short of the huge numbers Trump claimed. Nielsen data showed about 2.5 million people watched his opening-night speech on Fox News, the only major network to carry the entire address. Trump claimed the convention had generated massive ratings and even compared its reach favorably with the NFL. Reuters noted that the prior year's NFL opener drew nearly 28 million viewers.

More troubling for Republicans, there is little evidence the convention changed the political landscape.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after the event put Trump’s approval at 35 percent, only slightly above his record-low 33 percent. Democrats led Republicans 44 percent to 37 percent when voters were asked which party they would support for Congress.

A new Marquette Law School Poll was even rougher.

Among likely voters, Democrats led the generic congressional ballot 54 percent to 41 percent. Trump’s overall approval stood at 37 percent. But his numbers on the issues hitting family budgets were far worse.

Only 28 percent approved of his handling of the economy. Just 20 percent approved of his handling of gas prices. On inflation and the cost of living, approval fell to 19 percent.

The Iran war was not much better, at 26 percent approval.

CNN analyst Harry Enten noted Thursday that the Marquette result left Trump 61 points underwater on inflation — the worst net rating on that issue in the polling data he reviewed for any President. A Fox News poll also put Trump 50 points underwater on inflation.

That matters because inflation was one of the issues that helped return Trump to the White House.

Now it threatens to become an anchor around Republicans running for Congress.

Voters don’t have to read a poll to see the problem. They can see it at the gas pump.

AAA reported Thursday that regular gasoline averaged $4.43 per gallon nationally, up 16 cents in one week and more than $1 from a year earlier. That is below the $5.01 all-time national record set in June 2022, but closing in on the 2026 high of $4.56 reached in May.

Alabama is getting hit as well.

AAA put Alabama regular gasoline at $3.99 Thursday, up from $2.80 one year ago. Alabama diesel reached $6.09 per gallon — the highest average ever recorded in the state. Birmingham diesel was even higher, averaging about $6.12.

National diesel prices have also reached record territory. Reuters reported Friday morning that diesel was averaging about $6.29 per gallon nationwide, 68 percent higher than a year earlier. The increase is hitting farmers during harvest season and threatens to push more transportation costs into grocery prices.

The Iran war has played a major role in the energy shock. Fighting and instability around major oil routes have disrupted supplies and kept crude near $100 per barrel. AAA specifically cited continued volatility in the Strait of Hormuz as a factor behind rising pump prices.

That connection is becoming increasingly hard for Republican candidates to ignore.

Two Republicans facing competitive House races in Iowa, Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, voted this week for a resolution aimed at stopping Trump from continuing military action against Iran without congressional approval. Both had previously opposed such a move. The Associated Press reported that the shift came amid growing concern over the war, high fuel prices and voter opposition.

The distancing began before Republicans even arrived in Dallas.

CBS News reported that dozens of GOP candidates in some of the closest races were expected to skip the convention. The dilemma was simple: appearing with Trump might energize the MAGA base, but it also risked tying vulnerable candidates more closely to a President struggling with swing voters.

Republican leaders dispute that interpretation. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer dismissed claims that GOP candidates were running from Trump as “Washington D.C. hogwash,” while party officials argued candidates in close races simply needed to spend their time campaigning at home.

But the numbers explain why the question keeps coming up.

Inflation and the cost of living remain voters’ top concern in Marquette’s polling. Democrats now lead Republicans on voter confidence in handling the economy and inflation, while Trump’s approval on both has collapsed.

The Dallas convention was supposed to change the conversation.

Instead, Republicans returned home to $4 gasoline, $6 diesel, an unpopular war and a President whose approval on the cost of living has fallen to historic lows.

With Election Day approaching, those empty seats in Dallas might be the least of the GOP’s problems.

If the truckers go on strike on October 1st to protest sky-high diesel prices, as is rumored might happen?

THAT will be the GOP’s — and Trump’s — main problem.

Well, that; and the spanking they’ll take on November 3 because of it.